You do one thing. Something follows. Then something else, until the risk you care about has gone down. This tool draws that chain and asks how sure you are of every link.
How it works
Name it. Click the title and type.
Write the activity. The first card starts with “I am …”. It is the one thing you actually do.
Add steps. Click a “then” between two cards, or select a card and choose “Add a step before” or “after”. Each step is an outcome that follows from the one before. Building backwards from the goal works just as well.
Say how sure you are. Click a percentage to type it, or select a card and slide.
Add a detour when there is a second route. Select a card, then “Add a detour”. It leads to the goal until you point it elsewhere.
Connect steps. Several steps can lead into one. Drag the small dot under a card onto another card, or select a card and choose “connect to another step”.
End at the goal. The last card always reads “… the likelihood of [the risk] has decreased.”
Move things by dragging a card, or drag a “then” to bend its line out of the way. “Tidy up” puts everything back.
Percentages are optional. “Hide percentages” in the footer puts the numbers, the colours and the chance away, leaving just the chain. What you set is kept and comes back with “Show percentages”.
What the percentages mean
Each one answers a single question: if the step before it holds, how likely is this one?
In your hands · 75% and up. Mostly depends on how well you do your part.
Shared with others · 45 to 74%. Needs others to agree or act, and they usually can.
Up to others · under 45%. Hinges on things you don’t control: agendas, timing, budgets.
Reading the result
The chances multiply down the chain. Five steps at 80% each leave about one chance in three at the goal. Where routes meet, they add up: if either one holds, the next step is reached, so a card with several arrows into it shows the combined chance.
Keeping it
Everything saves in this browser as you go. “Text” gives you the chain as markdown to copy into your worksheet, or a place to paste one you already wrote. “Download” gives a PNG or a PDF.